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NEW ZEALAND could be in for a huge
windfall from "carbon credits" under the Kyoto Protocol
to cut greenhouse gas emissions - as much as $11 billion,
according to a forestry scientist.
People who converted pasture to
forests in the past decade should get a one-off payment equal to
the long-term gain in carbon stocks, according to a forestry
scientist Piers Maclaren, in a report included in Evergreen
Forest' annual report.
Greenhouse gases such as carbon
dioxide from the combustion of coal, oil and natural gas and from
farm animals have risen in the past 300 years, trapping sunlight
and warming the planet. Deforestation has accounted for about a
third of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere, and planting new trees
is the cheapest way to offset some of that.
Many scientists believe the
greenhouse effect will mean warmer temperatures, changing rainfall
patterns including floods and drought, rising sea levels, an
increase in pests and diseases and a big refugee problem.
Under Kyoto Protocol rules, carbon
credits would apply only to forests planted since 1990 on
pastures. Small partnerships rather than big companies have
planted most such forests.
But about 31.1 million tonnes of
carbon will end up being created by the post-1990 forests, as
measured in a five-year period up to 2012, with just a fraction
needed to meet New Zealand's own obligations to get back to
greenhouse gas levels of 1990.
The rest could be available for
trade. Proposals had been "seriously discussed" with
prices ranging from $US5 to $US150 ($NZ365) a tonne of carbon
emitted or stored in a new forest.
"This equates to between
$NZ1,000 and $30,000 a hectare, potentially a huge figure" Dr
Maclaren says in the report.
"Indeed, wood could become a
by-product of growing trees." This would have an enormous
impact on economies, with big users of fossil fuels penalised and
countries such as New Zealand benefiting because of the potential
to put more land into trees.
At $11 billion, the carbon credits
would be worth about a tenth of the total economy and more than a
year's dairy exports.
If common sense prevailed, the
people who put pasture into trees should get a one-off payment for
the new carbon stocks; with an obligation to maintain the land in
forestry forever, he says.
Power companies and fossil fuel
emitters of industrialised countries should pay for the carbon
emissions, but also ordinary consumers such as car drivers.
One side effect would be a sharp
increase in land prices, which could disadvantage other land users
and make them less competitive with other countries.
But for the present, the protocol
is an agreement between governments and does not carry any
obligation to give any credit to individuals or companies - it is
up to the governments who they pass on credits.
In the middle of this year, 178
countries endorsed the Kyoto Protocol, a watered down version of
the original, but only 3 have ratified it by law.
It will take at least 55 countries,
accounting for 55% of CO2 emissions in the industrialised world,
before the protocol comes into force. The United States accounts
for about 25% of emissions, but says the treaty is flawed and will
not sign. The treaty requires no action from developing countries
such as China and India.
As far as other countries go,
trading in forestry carbon sinks is firmly established in the
protocol, Dr Maclaren says. Countries that cannot meet targets to
cut greenhouse gas emissions can buy credit from countries such as
New Zealand that have spare capacity.
James Weir.
The Dominion, 19
October 2001 |
Plantation
Forestry and the Environment
